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2015 ADCC: a brief analysis of each division and a daring attempt to point out favorites

Who are your favorites for the 2015 ADCC?
Who are your favorites for the 2015 ADCC?

summer promoThe 2015 ADCC is finally here.

Milton Vieira was the last athlete to be confirmed for the -77kg division.

With all the names laid out, we now can go about a brief analysis of each one of the seven weight categories.

Of course, as we still don’t know how the brackets will be drawn, there’s no way of knowing what’s going to be the path to gold medal for each of the athletes.

Therefore, we’re gonna take a look on the names and pick the most likely to be in the semifinals.

We will not pick the most likely finalists, once that is too much influenced by the setting of the brackets.

Here we go.

Male -66 kg

The absence of Rafael Mendes left the division wide open for anyone to challenge the reigning champion Rubens Cobrinha. Augusto Mendes, Gianni Grippo, Ed Cummings, Bruno Frazatto and Justin Rader are the strongest candidates to be in the semifinals alongside Cobrinha, who is the overall favorite.

Most probable semifinalists:Rubens Cobrinha, Gianni Grippo, Ed Cummings, Augusto Mendes

Can anyone dethrone Cobrinha?
Can anyone dethrone Cobrinha?

1. Rubens Charles “Cobrinha” – Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Asadulaev Surkhay – Russia (1st European Trials Winner)
3. Nicolas Renier – France (2nd European Trials Winner)
4. Tezekbaev Rasul – Kyrgyzstan (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Yuto Hirao – Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
6. Geovanny Martinez – USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
7. Edward Cummings – USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
8. Renan Sancar Santos – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
9. Gabriel Marangoni – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
10. Jeff Glover – USA (Invited)
11. Augusto Mendes – Brazil (Invited)
12. Justin Rader – USA (Invited)
13. Bruno Frazatto – Brazil (Invited)
14. Gianni Grippo – USA (Invited)
15. Mark Ramos – USA (Invited)
16. Alexandre Vieira – Brazil (Invited)

Male -77 kg

The absence of Kron Gracie makes things wide open in the division. The runner up in 2013, Otavio Sousa is a strong candidate for another final. Garry Tonon, a surprise in 2013, is now a consolidated talent who has all the tools to make a real run for the title. Lucas Lepri, Gilbert Burns, AJ Agazarm, Ben Henderson and Dillon Danis should also be looked at carefully.

Most probable semifinalists: Otavio Sousa, Garry Tonon, Gilbert Burns, AJ Agazarm

Kron Gracie
Without Kron, who will reign over the -77kg division?

1. Gamrot Mateusz – Poland (1st European Trials Winner)
2. Abdulkadirov Magomed – Russia (2nd European Trials Winner)
3. Lachlan Giles – Australia (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
4. Young-am Noh – Korea (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Enrico Cocco – USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
6. Vagner Rocha – USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
7. Davi Ramos – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
8. Gabriel Rollo – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
9. Garry Tonon – USA (Invited)
10. Otavio Sousa – Brazil (Invited)
11. Lucas Lepri – Brazil (Invited)
12. Ben Henderson – USA (Invited)
13. Dillon Danis – USA (Invited)
14. Gilbert Burns – Brazil (Invited)
15. AJ Agazarm – USA (Invited)
16. Milton Vieira – Brazil (Invited)

Male -88 kg

Barral is back to defend his title, as are Rafael Lovato Jr., Keenan Cornelius and Pablo Popovitch, the other three semifinalists in 2013. Two years later, they are still the top four contenders for the division. Claudio Calasans Jr. and Yuri Simões will fight hard to break into hat club.

Most probable semifinalists: Romulo Barral, Rafael Lovato Jr., Keenan Cornelius, Pablo Popovitch.

Will the same podium repeat itself in 2015?
Will the same podium repeat itself in 2015?

1. Romulo Barral – Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Zbigniew Tyszka – Poland (1st European Trials Winner)
3. Jesse Urholin – Finland (2nd European Trials Winner)
4. Craig Jones – Australia (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Hidemi Mihara – Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
6. Matthew Arroyo – USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
7. Mike Perez – USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
8. Claudio Calasans – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
9. Keenan Cornelius – USA (Invited)
10. Rustam Chsiev – Russia (Invited)
11. Pablo Popovich – USA (Invited)
12. Rafael Lovato Jr. – USA (Invited)
13. Ezra Lenon – USA (Invited)
14. Neiman Gracie – Brazil (Invited)
15. Yuri Simoes – Brazil (Invited)
16. Ricardo Ramos De Mesquita – Brazil (Invited)

Male -99 kg

João Assis is another champion defending his title. A quick look on the names in his division makes clear that he’ll have a tougher job than he had in 2013. Rodolfo Vieira, Alexandre Ribeiro, Felipe Pena, Tom DeBlass, Hector Lombard, Cassio Francis are some of the obstacles Assis will have to jump over to make it to the top of the podium one more time.

Most probable semifinalists: João Assis, Rodolfo Vieira, Alexandre Ribeiro, Felipe Pena

Can João make it to his second gold medal?
Can João make it to his second gold medal?

1. Joao Assis – Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Tomasz Narkun – Poland (1st European Trials Winner)
3. Kamil Uminski – Poland (2nd European Trials Winner)
4. Tobias Green – Australia (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
5. Yukiyasu Ozawa – Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
6. Tom DeBlass – USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
7. Jason Bukich – USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
8. Roberto Alencar – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
9. Cassio Francis Da Silva – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
10. Alexandre Ribeiro – Brazil (Invited)
11. Hector Lombard – USA (Invited)
12. Felipe Pena – Brazil (Invited)
13. Rodolfo Vieira – Brazil (Invited)
14. Jimmy Friedrich – USA (Invited)
15. Adam Sachnoff – USA (Invited)
16. Lukasz Michalec – Poland (Invited)

Male +99 kg

Another “championless” division, the +99kg is wide open with the absence of Marcus Buchecha. The 2013 runner up João Gabriel is one of the favorites for sure, but Bernardo Faria, Dean Lister, Vinny Magalhães, Rodrigo Cavaca, Gabriel Lucas and Orlando Sanchez will fight hard to make it to the top.

Most probable semifinalists: João Gabriel, Dean Lister, Bernardo Faria, Vinny Magalhães

Who will succeed Buchecha in the +99kg division?
Who will succeed Buchecha in the +99kg division?

1. Janne-Pekka Pietiläinen – Finland (2nd European Trials Winner)
2. Lee Hyoung Chul – Korea (1st Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
3. Hideki Sekine – Japan (2nd Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
4. Jason Lees – USA (1st North American Trials Winner)
5. Paul Ardila – USA (2nd North American Trials Winner)
6. Leonardo Nascimento Lucio – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
7. Gabriel Lyrio Lucas – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
8. Rodrigo Cavaca – Brazil (Invited)
9. Joao Gabriel Rocha – Brazil (Invited)
10. Dean Lister – USA (Invited)
11. Vinny Magalhaes – Brazil (Invited)
12. Orlando Sanchez – USA (Invited)
13. Rodrigo Artilheiro – Brazil (Invited)
14. Bernardo Faria – Brazil (Invited)
15. Jeff Monson – USA (Invited)
16. Jared Dopp – USA (Invited)

Female -60 kg

Michelle Nicolini is back to defend her 2013 title. It will be a tougher task than two years ago, as new talents have emerged like Mackenzie Dern and Tammi Musumeci. Bia Mesquita is another big contender for one gold medal she still does not have.

Most probable semifinalists: Michelle Nicolini, Mackenzie Dern, Tammi Musumeci, Bia Mesquita

Will Michelle celebrate again?
Will Michelle celebrate again?

1. Michelle Nicolini – Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Kethe Marie Elgesem Engen – Norway (European Trials Winner)
3. Rikako Yuasa – Japan (Asia & Oceania Trials Winner)
4. Tammi Musumeci – USA (North American Trials Winner)
5. Ana Michelle Tavares Dantas – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
6. Mayra Mello Mazza – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
7. Mackenzie Dern – USA (Invited)
8. Beatriz Mesquita – Brazil (Invited)

Female +60 kg

Gabi Garcia is the favorite once again. Ana Laura Cordeiro, Fernanda Mazzelli and all the others will have to do wonders to take the third gold medal from Gabi’s hands.

Most probable semifinalists: Gabi Garcia, Ana Laura Cordeiro, Fernanda Mazzelli, Amanda Santana.

Can Gabi be stopped?
Can Gabi be stopped?

1. Gabrielle Garcia – Brazil (ADCC 2013 Winner)
2. Sophia Nordenö – Sweden (European Trials Winner)
3. Amanda Santana – USA (North American Trials Winner)
4. Fernanda Mazzelli Almeida Maio – Brazil (1st South American Trials Winner)
5. Jéssica Da Silva Oliveira – Brazil (2nd South American Trials Winner)
6. Marysia Malyjasiak – Poland (Invited)
7. Ana Laura Cordeiro – Brazil (Invited)
8. Alison Tremblay –  Canada (Invited)

Follow the best coverage of the 2015 ADCC right here at GRACIEMAG.com and also on our social media channels: Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and Periscope (@graciemag).

 

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